The MotoGP numbers game

The good folk at the Australian MotoGP office have sent us this guide on how the numbers stack up for young Australian Casey Stoner to take this year's world title. Enjoy…

The first fifteen riders over the finish line in a MotoGP race score points. 25 are awarded to the winner; 20 to the second-placed rider; 16 to third; 13 to fourth, 11 to fifth. The riders placed from sixth to fifteenth score from ten points for sixth; down to one point for the fifteenth placed rider.

Casey Stoner currently has 271 points and is 85 points clear of Valentino Rossi, who sits second in the world championship standings with 186 points.

After next weekend's race in Portugal, there are only four more races until the season ends at Valencia in Spain on 4 November. Should Stoner finish the weekend in Portugal with a lead of 100 points or more, he will be the new MotoGP world champion because 100 points is the maximum that could be won in the remaining four races after Portugal.

To do this, he will need to extend his lead over Rossi by a further 15 points at the Estoril circuit, located near Lisbon. There are a number of race results for both riders that could see this happening, but none of them is highly likely. Should Stoner win the race and Rossi be forced to pull out due to the same engine problems that plagued him at the last race in Misano, then the title will go to the Australian. Indeed, any podium position for Stoner, with Rossi out of the points action, would also clinch the deal.

But you can bet that the Fiat Yamaha team will be doing all it can to ensure that its Italian hero doesn't suffer the same fate. So, for arguments sake, let's assume Stoner wins that race and Rossi comes second. This would see Stoner's lead extend to 90 points over the seven-time world champion – a formidable lead, but still not enough to pop the champagne corks.

That takes us to the following race at in Japan. If the lad, who is described as being from various locations, but most notably Kurri Kurri in Newcastle's Hunter Valley, were to take the crown at the Motegi circuit, he would need to enjoy a 75-point lead or greater come 3.00pm Sunday, 23 September. Now, assuming our earlier scenario of the Stoner-Rossi one-two in Portugal took place, a similar result in Japan would see Stoner become Australia's third world champion in the premier class of motorcycle racing. In fact, any result of sixth or better would also do the deal because even if Rossi won (25 points) and Stoner came sixth (10 points), Stoner would have an unbeatable 75-point lead in the championship.

“But couldn't Rossi win 75 points in the three remaining races after Japan and Stoner not score another point?” we hear you ask. Yes, that is possible. In which case, both riders would be tied on points. Should this unlikely situation unfold, the championship is awarded to the rider with the number of best results, which would see Stoner take the title.

Confused? Let's throw another couple of hypotheticals into the mix and paint the picture for a Phillip Island crowning.

For this to take place, Stoner would need to go into the race with a lead of less than 75 points and finish the weekend with a lead of 50 points or more. Now, there are numerous scenarios in which this could happen, but they would almost certainly involve a non points scoring race for Stoner in either Portugal or Japan. Given his performance to date, this does not seem likely.

The laws or probability tell us that the most likely outcome is for a “Sayonara, Rossi” in Motegi in two weeks time, with Australia saying g'day to its newest world champion at his homecoming Grand Prix at Phillip island from 12 – 14 October.

See www.motogp.com.au