Congestion costs set to skyrocket
Without any increase in network capacity, an audit has estimated that congestion on urban roads will cost Australia $53.3 billion by 2031. And the news isn't good for Perth…If you believe that congestion is already a millstone around the neck of Australian cities, then think again.
That's after a transport study conducted by ACIL Allen Consulting for the Australian Infrastructure Audit delivered a bleak outlook: the projected costs of congestion on urban roads will skyrocket to $53.3 billion by 2031 as the population grows to about 30 million people. That congestion cost will rise from $13.7 billion in 2011—an increase of 290 percent.
The ACIL Allen methodology does not account for new investments in infrastructure between 2015 and 2031, apart from infrastructure which is already under construction, or for which a firm funding commitment has been made.
The audit identified 30 of the urban corridors with the biggest delay costs (the full term is delay cost per lane kilometre) in 2011, with seven of the top eight in NSW—and Pennant Hills Road between Parramatta and Hornsby the ignominy of being No. 1. In total, NSW had 14 of the roads with the biggest delay costs, followed by SA (seven), WA (four), Vic (three) and Qld (three).
But, based on projections, WA is set to be hit the hardest by 2031, with four of its corridors leading the way in delay costs, with the Mitchell Freeway the worst. Overall, WA is tipped to have 12 corridors in the top 30 list, ahead of NSW with 12.
The projected growth in congestion cost for Perth reflects the increase in population from 1.9 million in 2011 to 3.3 million in 2031, or 77 per cent. Perth’s transport network is heavily focused on the major north-south corridors, especially the Kwinana and Mitchell freeways. This reflects Perth’s urban form, which stretches over 100km north and south along the coast.
These key freeways are already operating at capacity in peak periods, especially on the approaches to Perth’s CBD and the Swan River crossings. In this context, the addition of 77 percent to Perth’s population, without a commensurate increase in transport network capacity, leads to the spreading of peak period loadings throughout the day, and significant growth in the cost of congestion.
The audit doesn't distinguish between alternative transport types, but I'm not selling my motorcycle anytime soon…
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